Marta Castellini, University of Padova and FEEM
When: July 15th, 2026, 1:30 PM
Where: Room B5, Santa Chiara Building, C.da Santa Chiara 50
We extend the IAM framework of the RICE-MED model by Castellini et al. [2025], based on RICE-99 of Nordhaus and Boyer [2000] with a spatial focus on the Mediterranean basin at the country level, by introducing uncertainty over a climate-change-driven catastrophe, following Castelnuovo et al. [2003]. Per-period utility is split between a pre- and a post-catastrophestate, weighted by an endoge-nous survivor probability whose hazard rate accumulates with the level and variation of temperature [Castelnuovo et al., 2003], and by a scaling parameter sizing the welfare loss should the catastrophe occur, the new element in the model’s uncertainty box. We explore different welfare-loss specifications to study the effects on the model’s regional and country outcomes (i.e. social cost of carbon, temperature increase, GDP, energy and emissions intensity): auniform loss across regions, a North–South case, and a heterogeneous, income-dependent and time-varying loss.